Thursday, July 10, 2014

[batavia-news] Jokowi Keok di Maluku?

 

 
 

Wasia Masuk DPT SBB

AMBON,AE— Tim pemenangan pasangan calon presiden dan wakil presiden, Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Radjasa Provinsi Maluku mengaku optimis meraih suara sebanyak 53 persen sesuai yang ditargetkan. Sampai dengan kemarin, berdasarkan data fomulir C1 yang diperoleh dari Tempat Pemungutan Suara (TPS), pasangan nomor urut satu ini sudah berhasil meraup 50.1 persen suara.

Sebelumnya dalam hitungan cepat sejumlah lembaga survei, Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Radjasa menang di Maluku. Diperkirakan hasil ini akan sesuai target yang diumbar Ketua Tim Pemenangan Prabowo-Hatta, Said Assagaff.

"Jadi sementara posisi perolehan suara kita berada pada 50.1 persen. Data ini bersumber dari formulir C1 yang sementara sudah masuk ke tim pemenangan pasangan Prabowo-Hatta provinsi Maluku.  Dan C1 untuk beberapa daerah belum masuk. Jadi kalau sampai 100 persen data C1 KWK sudah masuk, maka target 53 persen itu bisa tercapai. Atau kalaupun tidak, berarti berkurang pada 52 persen saja,"ujar anggota tim pemenangan Prabowo-Hatta Provinsi Maluku, bidang publikasi, media masa dan keamanan, Husein Toisuta kepada Ambon Ekspres, Kamis (10/7).

Toisuta menyatakan, berdasarkan informasi sementara yang diperoleh, pasangan Prabowo-Hatta menang di kabupaten Buru, Kota Tual, Maluku Tengah. Buru Selatan dan Kota Ambon, mereka kalah dengan selisih yang sangat sedikit. Sementara data C1 dari Maluku Tenggara, Maluku Tenggara Barat, Maluku Barat Daya, Kepualauan Aru dan SBT belum masuk secara keseluruhan. Sehingga perolehan suara Prabowo-Hatta diprediksi bisa bertambah.

"Sementara Bursel yang tadinya tidak kita harapkan, namun lumayan mendapatkan suara yang banyak juga disana. Kalau di kota kemenangan kita meleset. Pasangan lainya menang, tapi selisihnya tidak terlalu besar," ungkapnya.

Ketua OKK DPD Golkar Maluku ini mengakui, melesetnya target perolehan di beberapa kabupaten, termasuk kota Ambon akibat adanya pengaruh dari selebaran dan isu agama yang disebarkan oleh tim pemenangan pasangan Joko Widodo dan Jusuf Kalla jelang hari pencoblosan.

"Kami akui, hal ini terjadi akibatnya adanya selebaran yang tersebar sebelum hari pencoblosan 9 Juli kemarin. Kemudian ada isu-isu agama juga dimainkan, sehingga mengurangi atensi dan semangat masyarakat untuk memilih pasangan Prabowo-Hatta. Saya kira, target ini bisa tercapai kecuali isu-isu bisa diredam," katanya.

Tim pemenangan Prabowo-Hatta yang sudah tersebar di semua kabupaten/kota akan tetap mengawal proses penghitungan suara yang saat ini masih dilakukan oleh Panitia Pemungutan Suara (PPS) di tingkat Desa/Kelurahan sampai pada rekapitulasi KPU Provinsi 19 Juli mendatang.

"Kami akan tetap menyandingkan data saat ini dengan hasil rekapitulasi PPS, PPK dan kabupaten/kota dan terakhir di KPU Provinsi Maluku. Dari mekanisme yang diatur oleh aturan KPU ini, muda-mudahan tidak terjadi sabotase dan manipulasi data yang mengurangi suara pasangan calon. Karena data C1, kita sudah pegang," tegas anggota DPRD Kota Ambon.
Masuk DPT SBB

Sementara itu, anggota KPU Provinsi Maluku, devisi Teknis La Alwy mengatakan, pemilih yang berada di Desa Wasia, Samasuru dan Sapaloli menggunakan hak suaranya pada wilayah pemerintahan kabupaten Seram Bagian Barat. Tiga desa di perbatasan Maluku Tengah dan SBB ini, memiliki jumlah pemilih sekitar 1.500.

Penduduk tiga Desa ini diinput dalam Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT) SBB oleh KPU setempat, berdasarkan dokumen kependudukan yang yang secara administratif adalah penduduk SBB sejak 2012.
"Jadi dalam Pilpres tahun 2014 ini, pemilih di daerah perbatasan Wasia, Sanahu dan Sapaloli itu masuk dalam Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT) kabupaten Seram Bagian Barat. Dan karena mereka masuk DPT SBB, maka mereka melakukan pencoblosan pada daerah itu,"kaya Alwy.

Dia mengungkapkan, berdasarkan laporan yang didapatkan dari KPU SBB, proses pemungutan dan penghitungan suara berjalan aman dan lancar di daerah yang termasuk dalam wilayah kecamatan Elpapuith itu. Penggunaan hak sebagai warga SBB dalam pemilu sudah dilakukan sejak Pileg 2013 lalu.

"Sampai saatini tidak ada laporan terkait pelanggaran atau masalah dari KPU SBB maupun PPK Teluk Elpaputih. Dan kalau tidak ada laporan, itu artinya proses pemungutan dan penghitungan suara berjalan tanpa ganggguan," bebernya.

Mantan ketua KPU Malteng ini menambahkan, secara keseluruhan proses penghitungan suara di semua kabupaten/kota berjalan lancar. Bahkan, daerah yang dikhuatirkan akan mengalami masalah seperti MBD juga sudah melakukan penghitungan tanpa kendala berarti.

"Jadi secara umum proses pemungutan suara berjalan aman dan lancar disana. Karena daerah yang rawan dan berada di batas luar provinsi Maluku seperti MBD, belum ada laporan ada permasalahan. Dan setiap saat KPU MDB terus melaporkan perolehan hasil suara sementara. Itu artinya prosesnya berjalan cukup kondisif," jelasnya.

Di singgung soal banyaknya hasil penghitungan cepat oleh sejumlah lembaga survei dengan hasil yang beragam, dia menegaskan tidak akan berpengaruh terhadap real count yang sementara ini masih dilakukan di tingkat PPS. Tim pemenangan dan simpatisan pasangan calon serta masyarakat diminta agar tetap berpatokan pada hasil penghitungan KPU sesuai tingkatan.

Berdasarkan jadwal, penghitungan suara di tingkat PPS pada tanggal 10 Juli. Ditingkat PPK, 13-15 Juli, KPU kabupaten/kota 16-18 Juli dan provinsi baru akan dilkaksanakan pada 19 Juli. (CR2)

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[batavia-news] No one should even try to attack Crimea - Russian FM Lavrov

 

 

No one should even try to attack Crimea - Russian FM Lavrov

09.07.2014
 

 

No one should even dare to attack Crimea - Russian FM Lavrov. 53138.jpeg

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov does not recommend anyone to even consider the idea of ​​an armed attack on the Crimea, including for the purpose to return the peninsula to Ukraine.

"I would not advise anyone to do this. We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case," RIA Novosti quoted Lavrov as saying at a news conference after a meeting with his Italian counterpart Federica Mogerini.

One of the main requirements of Western countries and Ukraine to Russia is to "return" the Crimea to Ukraine and put pressure on the militias of Donbass. Ukraine's new President Petro Poroshenko designated the objective to take the Crimea back as one of the main goals of his presidency.

As for militias, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the militia want to be recognized as "full citizens of Ukraine." To resolve the situation in Ukraine,  the Kiev authorities must recognize militias as a party in the talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday.

"No matter what side of the conflict is in question, the answer is very simple - one should treat all parties to the conflict in a humane fashion, without calling them terrorists. One should recognize that they are fighting on the land that they consider their own, that they want to be full citizens of Ukraine; they want to be respected and heard ... and that they do not want to be forced to obey the authorities in Kiev," Lavrov said.

"That's what one needs from the Ukrainian leadership - to encourage volunteers to constructive dialogue. They are ready for it. But they are not ready to execute ultimatums that say that before this dialogue is possible, they need to surrender to the mercy of winners," said Lavrov.

Meanwhile, Moscow's Basmanny Court ruled to impose a measure of judicial restraint in the form of arrest against Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. The sanction will act in absentia until the official finds himself in sight of Russian law enforcement agencies. A similar action was taken last week against the governor of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine Igor Kolomoisky. Avakov and Kolomoisky appear as persons named in the criminal case that was filed in Russia into events in the south-east of Ukraine.

Both Avakov and Kolomoisky were put on international wanted list. The latter, in turn, claimed that they were not concerned about the actions of Russian investigative authorities.

The Investigative Committee of Russia accused Kolomoisky and Avakov of organizing mass killings of civilians, as well as of the use of prohibited means of warfare, kidnappings and hindering professional activities of the press.

More than 6,000 people have been interrogated so far, of whom about 3,000 were  recognized as victims. Combined with other evidence, the testimony of witnesses  and victims confirm the involvement of Avakov, Ukrainian soldiers, armed members of the National Guard of Ukraine and militants of the "Right Sector" movement in those crimes, the ministry said.

The head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Sergei Ivanov, said that Kiev would start stealing natural gas from the transit pipeline, which transports the fuel to Europe.

"By experience we know that when it's autumn and winter, Ukraine will be short of gas," he said at the Russian Language Center of the Beijing University at a meeting with students. According to Ivanov, one needs to prepare to the situation and to "diversify energy supplies," reports Regnum.

Gazprom officials said that Ukraine's gas debt had reached the level of $ 5.3 billion; 11.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas remain unpaid. The head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, said that the amount of the debt was gigantic. He also compared the unpaid amount to the one that Russia supplies to Poland in one year.

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[batavia-news] Halal tourism takes off in Japan

 

 
Thursday, July 10, 2014
 

Halal tourism takes off in Japan

lifestyle

 

Prayer rooms, hijabs made from local silk and even halal-certified whale meat are appearing in Japan as tourism bosses wake up to the demand from Muslim travellers. For a largely homogeneous country with only around 100,000 practicing Muslims, that means groping its way through unfamiliar customs as it looks to tap a growing market to help it double the number of overseas visitors by 2020. "Muslim travelers still do not feel comfortable here," Datuk Ibrahim Haji Ahmad Badawi, head of Malaysian food company Brahim's told AFP at a recent seminar on halal tourism in Tokyo. "The government seems to have understood this."

Last year, seminars like this one were held in 20 different regions in Japan, where hoteliers and restaurateurs were invited to learn how to cater to Muslims. The Osaka Chamber of Commerce handed out 5,000 leaflets as a guide to what can and cannot be eaten-the idea of forbidding consumption of things like alcohol or pork is anathema to omnivorous and foodie Japan. With the Islamic world currently observing the holy month of Ramadan, tourism to Japan is being heavily promoted in mainly-Muslim Southeast Asia, where visa requirements were relaxed in 2013 for Malaysia and Thailand.

Indonesia-the largest Muslim-majority country in the world-is slated to follow shortly. According to the Japanese Tourist Office, the number of Indonesians visiting the archipelago in 2013 was up 37 percent on the previous year, while 21 percent more Malaysians came. Chinese tourist numbers have recovered from their plunge following the 2012 eruption of the spat between Beijing and Tokyo over islands in the East China Sea. But broadening the appeal of Japan as a destination is key if the industry is to meet the 20 million visitors target set for 2020 when the Olympic Games come to Tokyo.

Catering for the world
The influx of athletes and spectators from all over the world that the sporting jamboree will bring is also playing into the drive to make the country more Muslim-friendly. "Can you imagine the number of Muslim athletes who will then come to Tokyo? We'll have to feed them," said Badawi.

Brahim as a company has already signed a deal with All Nippon Airways (ANA), one of Japan's biggest carriers, to supply inflight halal meals, Badawi said. A number of large hotels have also approached him looking for advice on how they can cater for Muslim guests. For Badawi, despite Japan's slow start, the direction of travel is clear: Muslims looking for holiday destinations will come, and in bigger numbers, giving Tokyo an ever-larger slice of a $600 billion global pie.

Slowly, various regions across Japan are catching on. Major airports have dedicated prayer rooms, and tourists looking for the perfect present can pick up hijabs made from Japanese silk as they pass through Kansai International Airport, near Osaka, a recent television report showed.

Longer term visitors are also being catered for, with 19 universities offering halal menus in their cafeterias in a bid to boost the number of Muslim students. Customers looking for an authentic-but halal-Japanese dish already have a choice in Tokyo, including a yakiniku barbecue restaurant run by Roger Bernard Diaz, a Sri Lankan Catholic who converted his business, but not his religion.

He has no qualms about making the change to offering a range of halal meats and says it has helped him garner reservations from customers from Southeast Asia, and even the Gulf. But sourcing produce can be difficult. "It's hard to find all the ingredients," he admits while pulling a Brazilian-raised halal chicken from a dedicated freezer.

Whale meat
Muslims who want to sample whale meat are also catered for after Japan's whaling mothership, which slaughters the animals on their controversial hunt, was certified halal-compliant last year. The Japan Halal Association, which was founded in 2010, is one of only two bodies that can grant this status in the country.

Its chairwoman Hind Hitomi Remon told AFP that business is brisk. "We are an associate member of the World Halal Council," she said. "Since 2012, we have issued certificates to 40 companies, and that number is set to rise a lot this year," a fact she says is directly attributable to Tokyo being awarded the Olympic Games for 2020. And even if the tourists don't want to eat in Japan, producers are readying to send produce to them, with exports such as halal-certified soy sauce and even rice, grown in northern Akita prefecture.

But until the numbers swell a little bit more, businesses catering to Muslims still have to keep an eye on what their other customers want. Yakiniku restaurant owner Diaz says around half of his customers now are Muslims yet he still has to cater for his other patrons. "It's hard to do business here without selling alcohol," he said.-AFP

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[batavia-news] Moderation, tolerance

 

 
Thursday, July 10, 2014
 
 
 

Moderation, tolerance

Labeed Abdal

Labeed Abdal

The interior Ministry announced recently that three arms dealers were arrested with possession of a large number of unlicensed weapons. The ministry confirmed that the weapons are not remnants from the 1990/91 Iraqi Invasion, and that it had intensified efforts to identify their source. This is a very important effort especially amid information indicating that more weapons could appear soon.

The importance of the ministry's investigations also stems from the fact that we cannot ignore attempts to 'export' terrorism or move radicalism and killing to our country. Instability in Arab countries caused by extremists who falsely associate their actions with Islam requires boosting moderation, tolerance and accepting others regardless of religion. Humanity is the thing that we have in common, aside with the need to live in mutual peace and security, without rigorism, animosity and hostility towards others. The Islamic Sharia preaches peace, tolerance and simplification.

There are many verses in the Holy Quran that calls Muslims to adopt moderation, whether in their dealing with each other, or with people who believe in other religions. Also, the Prophet Mohammad (peace be upon him) gave several Hadiths (sayings) that talk about the importance of moderation, tolerance, and good treatment of others. The actions committed by extremists come in clear contradiction with those Quran verses and Prophet's sayings. The basics of Islam contain the best examples for social justice, religious tolerance, equality and openness.

By Labeed Abdal
labeed.abdal@gmail.com

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[batavia-news] ISIS Executes 13 Sunni Clerics for Refusal To Join Them

 

res : Untuk melihat chotbat Clalip Ibrahim dalam bahasa Arab, subtitle bahasa inggris  click : http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_1799141271&feature=iv&src_vid=VOORW63ioY0&v=tX7IRUjcec4
 
 

ISIS Executes 13 Sunni Clerics for Refusal To Join Them

Wed, July 9, 2014

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, now styled Caliph Ibrahim, gives his debut speech in a Mosul Mosque.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, now styled Caliph Ibrahim, gives his debut speech in a Mosul Mosque.  

Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, now simple the Islamic state, executed 13 leading Sunni clerics last month. The leaders were executed for refusal to pledge loyalty to the Islamic State.

These executions are evidence that ISIS is cracking down on dissent, and will refuse to allow any contradictory opinions in what it regards as its territory.

Heiner Bielefeldt, the UN's special rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief expressed serious concern about the turn of events. "Here a Sunni movement is executing Sunni religious leaders. That should make us think." she said. "It's important to focus more attention on these particular killings, because here we are not talking about Sunnis versus [Shiites]. This is a very clear case of atrocities committed against their own people, against religious leaders from Sunni Islam who probably have a less simplistic understanding of what Islam means."

ISIS claims to have executed 1,700 captured Shiite Iraqi soldiers. They have posted videos online of executions they have performed. On previous occasions they have publically displayed the crucified bodies of their enemies.

Their reputation for brutality serves as propaganda tool that ISIS uses to demand obedience.

One of the Sunni clerics executed by ISIS was the former Imam of Mosul's famous Nur-al-din Mosque. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi used that Mosque as the location for his first public appearance on Friday.  He used the occasion to deliver a sermon, calling for loyalty from all Muslims, and exhorting all believers to fights jihad

"This month (Ramadan) is the month for Jihad" he declared. "When the prophet made armies to fight the enemies of God, the month where he would wage Jihad on polytheists! So take advantage of this month and obey Allah."

ISIS is now controlling the content of all friday sermons delivered in Mosul.

Since their initial sweeping advances, the biggest Islamist victory since 9/11, ISIS seems to have most of their energies into consolidating their gains. Most of the fighting at the moment is concentrated around the Iraqi city of Tikrit, which the Iraqi army is currently attempting to reconquer.

One indication of their will to stay was the announcement of the creation of a new Islamic Caliphate on June 29th, the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. According to Islamic extremists, Ramadan is the optimal time of the year for Jihad. 

At the same time as ruthlessly crushing dissent, ISIS is also engaged in attempting to draw people into its cause. ISIS' gains in Iraq would not have been possible without the aid of Sunni tribal fighters, who bitterly resent President Nouri al-Maliki and his Shiite government.

Today the Iraqi Tribal Revolutionaries coalition said that if ISIS is able to depose Mr. Maliki and capture Baghdad, they will support the new Islamic Caliphate

Sheikh Raad Abdul Sattar Suleiman, a spokesman for the Tribal Revolutionaries coalition also heads their Coalition Committee. He is a senior member of the Dulaim tribe, which has 3 million members in Iraq. told reporters that there was cooperation between ISIS and Sunni tribal militia groups, although tribal readers did not recognize the Caliphate yet. However, he opened the door to that possibility in the future, saying: "If ISIS liberates Iraq and expels the Iranians who are backing the Maliki government, we will give it our blessing and support its Islamic State. The important thing is to save Iraq from the Iranians"

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[batavia-news] Iraq: Massive Exodus Leaves Christians on Brink of Extinction

 

 
 

Iraq: Massive Exodus Leaves Christians on Brink of Extinction

Thu, July 10, 2014

The aftermath of a bomb attack on a church in Kirkuk, Iraq. (Photo © Reuters)  

The aftermath of a bomb attack on a church in Kirkuk, Iraq. (Photo © Reuters)

Christians in Iraq are under serious threat from militant Islamists and the deteriorating security situation. Ongoing violence has caused many to flee their homes, with many more considering doing so.

Three of Iraq's most prominent Christian leaders attended a summit in Brussels to call on the European Union to do more to address the plight of one of the world's oldest Christian communities.

Chaldean Catholic Patriarch Louis Raphael Sako, Syrian Catholic Archbishop of Mosul Yohanna Petros Mouche and Chaldean Catholic Archbishop of Kirkuk Youssif Mirkis flew to Brussels on Wednesday to meet with top EU officials including European Union President Herman van Rompuy. They spoke passionately about the threats their communities face daily and asked for assistance in preserving their communities.

Patriarch Sako drew attention in particular to the plight of two Chaldean nuns and three orphans who are believed to have been kidnapped by the Islamic State (formerly ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) from an orphanage in northern Iraq on June 28.

The three sects of Christianity represented by the leaders are affiliated with the Catholic Church, but retain their own rites and practices. Many of them still worship in Aramaic, as they have for the last 2,000 years.

Patriarch Sako said "Europeans have a moral duty vis-à-vis Iraq." The three leaders explained Iraqi Christianity's long history and lamented the uncertainty of its future. "The next days will be very bad" said Sako "If the situation does not change, Christians will be left with just a symbolic presence in Iraq. If they leave, their history is finished."

Yohanna Petros Mouche, the Archbishop of Mosul, a city now in the hands of the Islamic State, said that many Christians fled Mosul when the Islamist army descended on the city. Those who attempted to return "found no water, hardly electricity" he said. "There's only fear."

The Islamic State has been consolidating its rule and crushing all dissenters. At the end of June, they executed 13 Sunni clerics who refused to accept their rule.

Before the arrival of the Islamic State, many Christians had fled from persecution and sectarian violence north, to the Ninevah plain. Christians in Iraq view the Nineveh plain as their ancestral homeland. Many of them claim to be descendants of the original Assyrians, who once had an empire in the region based around their capital city of Nineveh.

Christians have continued to flee Mosul and the surrounding areas since the arrival of ISIS. The American based organization Christian Solidarity International (CSI) is cooperating with the Assyrian group Hammurabi Human Rights Organization to provide aid to Christian refugees from the Islamic State.

One Christian city, Hamdaniya, 20km from Mosul was shelled by the Islamic State without warning. Marwa, an eyewitness told CSI, "The shelling started at 3 p.m. on Wednesday (June 25), when I was looking after the children. I'd been very nervous since ISIS took Mosul, but the shelling started without warning. The shells landed every thirty minutes, and the Kurds were returning fire. We stayed up all night and left at 7 a.m. on Thursday. Most of the people left before us. We have no idea why this happened, or what has become of our home."

Almost all of the city's 50,000 people fled.

Reverend Dr. Andrew White is chaplain of St. George's Anglican Church in Baghdad. As part of his e-newsletter, he sent out an appeal to his supporters in England and to Christians around the world to support Iraq's community in light of the deteriorating situation.

"The Iraqi army is surrounding Baghdad and shots can be heard from St. George's church every night." he said "The situation is so dire, and we need help more than ever."

"Iraq is where Christianity started in the very beginning and Christians are now being persecuted. Numerous churches have been burnt down, and countless Christians have been forced to flee or killed. Even Christian graves are being desecrated and knocked over. The hatred is hard to understand."

He described the difficulties in helping the dispossessed caused by the sheer volume of refugees. "We are trying to help some of the families that have fled to Erbil in northern Iraq, but the need is just so great it is difficult. People are left with nothing but the clothes they were wearing."

Before the 2003 war, Iraq had a population of around 1.2 million Christians. Now there are 300,000.

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[batavia-news] Cornucopia of promises at Indonesian polls

 

 
   Jul 8, '14
 
Cornucopia of promises at Indonesian polls
By James Bean

Indonesians go to the ballot boxes this Wednesday to choose a president from two candidates who hail from starkly different backgrounds. Exhibiting diametrically opposite in personalities and campaign styles, they have whipsawed the nation into one of the tightest of races in the nation's post-1998 political history.

If recent polls are accurate, the leads claimed by either camp are so narrow that the margin of error in polling may actually render changes in voters' support statistically insignificant. Indonesia's media has meticulously recorded the promises and key statements of the candidates, which is in contrast to English-language coverage.

The nation's leading English-language newspaper, The Jakarta
Post, recently took the unprecedented step of coming out in support of career politician and incumbent Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and his septuagenarian running mate, former vice president Jusuf Kalla. Widodo, or "Jokowi" as he is fondly known, has had a popularity boost from widespread discomfort with the association of his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, with past human rights abuses.

Over the weekend, The Jakarta Post reported that the National Human Rights Commission officially endorsed the Jokowi-Kalla ticket, citing Prabowo's "involvement in kidnapping pro-democracy activists amid the fall of his former father-in-law Suharto in May 1998".

Overseas, a fiercely anti-Prabowo line has emerged among political commentators, including leading academics at Australian National University. Their popular online magazine New Mandala has turned out a litany of scathing critiques dismissing Prabowo as a Putinist authoritarian and dictator in-waiting. Prabowo has responded to the criticism, asserting in a recent interview his commitment to democracy and upholding the Indonesian constitution.

But what happens if Prabowo wins, as some polls now indicate? What will a Prabowo-Hatta administration look like? And in the same scenario, what are the promises and cabinet choices his Merah-Putih ("Red & White") coalition will have to confront before it runs the country?

Prabowo's political party, the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, first emerged during the 2009 legislative elections, where it secured 26 seats in the House of Representatives, representing around 4.5% of the vote. Gerindra almost tripled its share of the vote last May, coming in third with nearly 12%, behind Indonesia's established political parties PDI-P and Golkar.

In other words, the message (and the machine) is getting through to the electorate. But, what is Prabowo's message? One commentator observed that "he adopts the body of [independence hero] Sukarno, but in language, he imitates [former dictator] Suharto."

There is certainly a defensive quality to his oratory, warning in speeches the nation against "sticking their heads in the sand in the face of danger" and enjoining them to "protect our territory, our sovereignty" and dream of an Indonesia that is "revered" (disegani) not "trodden on by other nations".

As a career soldier and former acolyte of his autocratic father-in-law, that is hardly surprising. There's also no doubt that Prabowo exudes a steely determination, and it is winning him votes. But his economic mantra is also persuading many Indonesians, an aspect of his campaign that has attracted very little scrutiny overseas.

Channeling his inner-Clinton - "it's the economy, stupid" - most of Prabowo's promises relate to the economy. Whether it is decrying waste or aiming his fervent oratory at economic inequality, Prabowo appears to be aware of the magnitude of the economic challenges ahead, arguing forcefully that economic growth would have to increase to double the current levels of 5-6% of gross domestic product if Indonesia is to avoid a middle-income trap.

Jokowi and Kalla are significantly less forthcoming and decisive on their economic diagnosis and policy prescriptions. However, this lack of clarity on economic policy has not deterred overseas markets, which have signaled broadly a preference for a Jokowi-Kalla ticket.

Prabowo-Hatta's promises
  • 250% increase in average minimum wages to around US$500 per month, much to the consternation of Indonesia's business elite.
  • Abolishing outsourced labor and labor brokers' response to demands by Indonesia's largest labor union.
  • Getting The Dirt Flying: Massive infrastructure development, including 3,000 kilometers of roads and 3,000 kilometers of rail across Indonesia.
  • One Billion Per Village: Prabowo has promised Indonesia's roughly 74,000 villages one billion rupiah per year per village, which some quarters have pointed out is already being implemented.
  • Free education up to and including tuition at public universities.
  • Big tax push to raise collection from the current 12% of GDP to 17%.
  • Doubling the Corruption Eradication Commission's current operating budget.
  • 1,000% wage increase for Indonesia's 1.2 million honorary teachers.
  • 50-67% reduction in the nationwide fuel subsidy over 3-5 years.
  • Weaning Indonesia off public foreign debt and making the most of consolidated revenues.

    Jokowi-Kalla's promises

  • Jokowi recently promised 10 million new jobs and his mission statement refers to systematic salary increases for public servants and security service personnel.
  • The Jokowi-Kalla platform on labor reform is focused on legal reform, the provision of workers' housing, albeit with a caveat on controlling inflation.
  • Rehabilitation of three million Ha of irrigation-based agricultural land, 25 dams, and 5,000 traditional markets.
  • Jokowi has promised even higher disbursements to villages in addition to a targeted household subsidy for disadvantaged families, and poverty alleviation measures.
  • Jokowi-Kalla have matched Prabowo-Hatta's promise on free education, to be further entrenched by compulsory education laws.
  • Wide-ranging agrarian land reform, including redistribution of nine million hectares of land, protecting customary rights over land, opening one million hectares of land for dry land agriculture, and increased investment in rural areas.
  • Jokowi-Kalla have signaled their support for the commission, in addition to foreshadowing the resolution of past human rights incidents and a comprehensive review of Indonesia's military justice system.
  • Buy-back of telecommunications giant Indosat that was sold off in 1998 by Megawati Sukarnoputri.
  • Transition from imported fuel and Indonesia's corpulent fuel subsidy to domestically sourced natural gas and biofuels, including a 30% reduction in private transport through a raft of public/mass transport initiatives.
  • Extensive wildlife and environmental conservation policy, including a massive reforestation target of 2 million hectares to be rehabilitated per year.

    The obvious question for either candidate is how they can afford to implement and realize these ambitious promises over a five-year timeframe. An equally important consideration is who will be given the ministerial portfolios charged with championing these changes?

    Based on last May's parliamentary election results, the Jokowi-Kalla ticket secured approximately 40% of DPRI seats with the Merah-Putih coalition picking up the balance. In recent weeks, the Indonesian media - to say nothing of the elite rumor mill - has been afire with stories of cabinet deals, the most recent concerning Central Java Vice Governor Rustriningsih turning her back on the PDI-P and announcing her support for the Prabowo-Hatta ticket.

    This means that despite the rhetoric, cabinet composition deals must already be well advanced. Both candidates have sought to disparage commentary predicting that cabinet appointments have already been brokered. In reality, both camps know that they will have to come clean with voters at some point on their intra-coalition cabinet deals. In terms of cabinet selection, here's what has been promised or strongly implied through the media:

    Prabowo-Hatta's cabinet hints

  • Both Prabowo, Golkar party officials, and Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie himself have hinted that Bakrie is the presumptive Menteri Utama, an anomalous, potentially unconstitutional ministry.
  • Said Aqil Siroj, chairman of Indonesia's largest Sunni Muslim organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), has indirectly confirmed that NU has dibs on the Minister for Religious Affairs.
  • Labor union leader and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) member Said Iqbal is on record saying that by entering into a political contract with the nation's largest union, it is reasonable for either himself or someone from Indonesia's nearly 70-year-old teacher's union, PGRI, to be offered a cabinet slot.
  • Whilst Prabowo is on the record denying that the Education Ministry is the province of conservative Muslim party PKS, the latter has a history of coveting the education, agriculture, and social affairs ministries.
  • Prabowo has pledged that 30% of his cabinet will be filled by women, adding that if he does not follow through on the vow he will be "impeached" by his own party.
  • Special forces mandarin, son of communist purge leader Sarwo Edhie, and incumbent President Yudhoyono's brother-in-law, Pramono Edhie Wibowo is the most important person from the Democrat Party to accommodate within a Merah-Putih cabinet.

    Jokowi-Kalla's cabinet hints

  • Incumbent Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Chairul Tanjung and senior economist Faisal Basri have been name-dropped as the economic brains of a Jokowi-Kalla cabinet.
  • The chairman of coalition partner The National Awakening Party, Muhaimin Iskandar, confirmed that a Jokowi-Kalla cabinet would also defer to NU for this slot.
  • Despite Jokowi's careful denials, National Democrat Party founder and media mogul Surya Paloh is almost assured a prominent role in cabinet, most likely Minister of Communications and Information Technology.
  • Highly ambitious intellectual Anies Baswedan has been at pains to deny that he has been offered the Education and Cultural Affairs Ministry.
  • Prabowo's pledge on appointing women to key roles is matched by Jokowi-Kalla, although it is not as explicit in relation to cabinet composition as Prabowo-Hatta promises.
  • With a promised threefold increase in defense spending, likely Indonesian National Armed Forces interlocutors are seen as Ryamizard Ryacudu, A M Hendropriyono, Tedjo Edi, and Luhut Pandjaitan. Ultimately, it will come down to who PDI-P powerbrokers such as Megawati and Tjahjo Kumolo feel most comfortable dealing with.

    Refreshingly, and something of a first for Indonesia, the foreign minister portfolio is spoilt for choice. At first glance, the slot is a toss-up between the incumbent Marty Natalegawa and the much-respected former government spokesman and momentary presidential hopeful Dino Djalal. Both are career diplomats and have been coy about their prospects.

    Whilst Jokowi is likely to reinstate Natalegawa, it's unclear if Prabowo would tap him, as some have suggested, or pick Djalal given his stronger association with the Democrat Party. Another tantalizing possibility is veteran Golkar politician and United Nations diplomat Marzuki Darusman.

    Indonesia's economy needs a safe pair of hands to sustain the recent period of strong growth. Something of a dark horse in this election is leading Indonesian economist and World Bank managing director Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

    Both camps have a history of courting her. Two years ago, Sri Mulyani was mooted by Gerindra as a candidate for vice president. Earlier this year, Jokowi's people considered her for their vice presidential candidate before settling on the more politically connected Kalla.

    Recalling that her resignation as finance minister in 2010 roiled markets, it's entirely possible that her reinstatement might have the opposite effect. For Sri Mulyani to join a Prabowo-Hatta administration, however, would require a Herculean effort at persuading Bakrie, whose animosity towards her is well documented.

    Regardless of which candidate wins the election, whoever is installed at the key economic portfolios will face a tall order in balancing ambitious election promises and wary global financial markets. Indeed, the sheer weight and scale of the cornucopia of promises made by both presidential candidates may well sow the seeds of their respective coalition's eventual disintegration.

    If Prabowo is to keep faith with the various promises he has made and honor the inducements offered to other parties and individuals needed to build his Merah-Putih Coalition, his presidency and new cabinet will likely face tremendous pressure from the outset. This is especially true if the resurgence of activism awakened by the Jokowi-Kalla campaign shifts gears and stays mobilized in opposition to a Prabowo-Hatta administration.

    Jokowi, on the other hand, will most likely experience a honeymoon period where voters and markets are satisfied that the "good guys" won - until, that is, his administration starts to renege on its various campaign trail promises.

    James Bean is a PhD candidate with The Australian National University's School of International, Political, and Strategic Studies. He may be reached by e-mail at beanjamesp@gmail.com

    (Copyright 2014 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
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