Threat of partition in Syria
With the opposition claiming the regime is plotting to partition Syria, observers say it is now too weak to implement such a plan, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus
A damaged tank belonging to forces loyal to Al-Assad is seen at a deserted street in the besieged area of Homs (photo: Reuters)
Rumours have been spreading about the possibility of partitioning Syria if the regime finds itself close to collapse, with some observers claiming that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is now plotting to break up the country along political, social and demographic lines, with others claiming that this would be effectively impossible.
Partitioning Syria would not be limited to breaking off the Western coastal region where the president and key figures from the regime come from and where many regime loyalists and Alawites are concentrated. Instead, it could also include the possibility of partitioning the country into religious, sectarian and possibly even regional entities.
Under this scenario, Syria would effectively collapse, being divided into four or five separate entities with different and opposing outlooks effectively hostile to each other. Talk of partitioning the country is not new. For decades, proposals about the future of Syria have been floated, and pessimists are now talking about partition as a way out for the regime if it finds itself cornered.
However, pressure from domestic and foreign sources may prevent the implementation of such a plan, especially if the Syrians themselves are determined to maintain the unity of their country. Partitioning would only serve Syria's enemies and not be in anyone's interests, many say, apart from some small segments of the population.
Nevertheless, for the time being a political solution to the crisis the country faces remains unattainable, and brutal confrontations continue as religious and sectarian mobilisation climbs amid calls for religious and factional extremism.
As a result, there has been talk of a possible Kurdish enclave in the north of the country, along with a Western portion made up of the present regime and its Alawite supporters. There has also been talk of minority Druze and Christian areas, along with a majority Sunni area that would make up most of the present country.
The Syrian opposition asserts that the regime now fears defeat and sectarian retribution and so has started to carve out a region for itself in its traditional strongholds along the coastal mountain range. This region includes Homs, Hamah, Idlib and as far as northwest Syria, cutting the area off from Western Syria.
Other opposition figures have accused the regime of planning to ethnically cleanse Sunni villages that could be included in the partition plan in order to spread terror among their residents and cause them to flee. In the light of such plans, these figures say, action should be stepped up to overthrow the regime.
Since the start of the uprising against the Al-Assad regime two years ago, the regime has tried to militarise the minority Alawites along sectarian lines, something that has been successful because of the international community's statements that it does not intend to intervene in the country and will not arm the revolutionaries.
Once the military balance began to tip towards the revolutionaries and they took control of large swathes of the country, the regime began to destroy these areas by adopting scorched-earth tactics.
The Alawites began leaving for Western Syria in the belief that this area would be safer, and the regime and its supporters have reportedly been discussing a plan to set up a small Alawite state and divide the country into sectarian and ethnic cantons that would weaken the Sunni regions, giving these cantons the names of a federation, confederation, non-centralised political administration and so on.
Meanwhile, the massacres have been increasing, and the regime has aimed to further implicate the Alawites in them in order to try to prevent them from objecting to an independent statelet.
Alawite opposition to the regime is limited, and at the beginning of the uprising many Alawites said they feared change and demanded guarantees of the safety of their community, wanting reassurances that they would continue to control the Syrian state and its agencies.
In response to such fears, the revolutionaries declared the Syrian people were united and that the Alawites did not need guarantees because the "homeland is for all."
"The massacres that have taken place in Homs, Hamah and Idlib in central Syria in areas where the Alawite supporters of Al-Assad are located have been no coincidence," Fayez Sara, an opposition figure, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "These have been part of a pre-planned policy aiming to terrorise residents so that Sunnis flee these areas, paving the way for the creation of a mini Alawite state along the coast."
"The massacres are part of a plot that aims to divide northern Syria (Aleppo and Hamah) from southern Syria (Damascus), in preparation for a US-Russian-Iranian agreement to divide Syria into cantons as part of a confederation with a weak central government if the revolution overthrows, or comes close to overthrowing, the regime."
According to many moderate opposition politicians, however, the regime cannot be described as Alawite, Christian, Sunni or Druze. Instead, it is simply corrupt and oppressive, such people say. It is not defending its own sect, but is instead simply defending what it has stolen from the people and its own privileges.
It would be a grave mistake to fight against it as an Alawite regime, because this could cause this sect to defend it in self-defence, making it difficult for Alawites to turn their backs on the regime and possibly triggering a sectarian civil war in the country.
Meanwhile, the US has said that its offer for Al-Assad to leave power safely does not include his moving to his birthplace of Latakia and creating an Alawite statelet there. In Washington's view, there can be no question of forming an Alawite mini-state because the US is adamant about maintaining the integrity and unity of Syrian territory.
Commenting on the domestic and foreign objections to partitioning the country, Sara said that "there are broad segments inside Syria that reject partition, not only because of their political culture and heritage, but also because of their cognisance of the interests of the Syrian people."
"Since its launch, the Syrian revolution has attempted to reconfirm the unity and solidarity of the Syrian people even as the regime and its supporters have tried to break it. Overall domestic sentiment leans towards resisting partition in order to maintain a united Syria that provides freedom and dignity for its citizenry where all can co-exist without discrimination."
"Meanwhile, there are also international and regional forces that object to partition, notably because of neighbouring states with populations that are extensions of what exists in Syria. There are Kurds, Sunnis and Alawites in Turkey, for example, and Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq. There are Sunnis in Jordan, and Sunnis, Alawites and Christians in Lebanon. No one would be able to stop these communities from reacting against the idea of partition, especially if it is caused by or the result of violence."
"As for the major powers, most of these also reject splitting the country in order to protect their own interests because they would prefer to deal with a single regime. Partitioning Syria would destabilise the states of the region and perhaps lead to their partitioning too, which would destabilise the supply of oil and gas around the world."
Wael Al-Sawah, a political activist, said that the "regime cannot guarantee the [support] of the sect of which it has declared itself the spokesperson and protector. While there is a group within the sect that supports [Al-Assad], hundreds of thousands of patriotic Syrians from this same sect will not accept any division of their homeland and their becoming isolated in a sectarian mini-state."
"They will fight this possibility and support the motherland. Thousands of Alawites who have participated in the revolution since the first day will reject Al-Assad's reign over such an Alawite statelet. They will be joined by their families and friends who will refuse to sacrifice their sons for the sake of a single family that wants to divide Syria," Al-Sawah said, referring to the Al-Assad family.
Observers believe it will be impossible to create an Alawite mini-state because the demographic reality on the ground is complicated and difficult to disentangle. There is a Sunni majority that would be difficult to displace and a sizable number of Christians who will not accept partition, as well as a percentage of Alawites who oppose the regime and reject it too, including Alawite clerics, military personnel and intellectuals.
However, some radical Sunni opposition elements say there is empathy between the regime and the Alawite sect, and this is not how they view other groups that could be even stronger supporters of the regime. The longer the conflict continues in Syria, the more risky the notion of partition or sectarian division in deciding the fate of the country becomes.
In Lebanon, there are Christian fears of Hizbullah's possible military involvement in the conflict, and in the north there have been Kurdish demands for a federation. Russia and Iran have not concealed the fact that in the last resort they could be willing to partition Syria and create an Alawite state in the West with the possibility of a Druze state in the south.
"The revolutionaries only have one option, which is to topple the regime by force," said opposition figure Fawwaz Tallu. "The regime and its supporters have left them with no other choice. This can only be done by going to the Alawite regions and disarming them in order to bring those who have committed crimes against the Syrian people to justice irrespective of their sect."
"Justice according to the law and through the courts is the sole guarantee that the Alawites can once again be integrated into Syria's fabric, which was destroyed by this sect after murdering thieves led them into the present adventure."
Much of the Syrian opposition believes that the best guarantee for the Alawites and for the minorities in general would be for these to support the overthrow of the regime and the creation of a civil state free of tyranny, the rule of security agencies and the presence of sectarian configurations.
This would be a democratic state ruled by a civil constitution that protected equal rights and freedoms and did not countenance sectarian quotas or the partitioning of the country. If a state of this sort cannot be brought about, partition or civil war may await the country.
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