Pramono Emerges for 2014 as the 'Military's President'
Pramono Edhie Wibowo has been a Democratic Party member for less than two weeks and already the former Army chief of staff is being hailed as the obvious choice to replace President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the 2014 election.
Analysts say that Pramono, the younger brother of Ani Yudhoyono, the first lady, meets the two main criteria by which most Indonesian voters judge presidential potential: He is Javanese, and he has a military background.
The rationale behind these points is clear. Java is home to some 60 percent of the country's voters; and with many people still seeing the military — particularly the Army — as the strongest institution in the state, Pramono's military credentials are seen as a major asset.
"Military background and support could help him," Aleksius Jemadu, the dean of Pelita Harapan University's School of Social and Political Sciences, told the Jakarta Globe on Thursday.
But Pramono is hardly the first prospective presidential candidate from the Army. Prabowo Subianto, the former commander of the Army Special Forces (Kopassus) is widely considered one of the front-runners for the 2014 race, while Wiranto, the last armed forces chief under Suharto, announced his bid last week.
The difference, however, lies in the support behind the men.
Prabowo was discharged from the Army before he could retire, while Wiranto was always a polarizing figure among the top brass during his time in charge. But Pramono, only recently retired, is someone who analysts say would have the full backing of the military, which, though nominally prohibited from entering politics, is still seen as highly influential.
Gen. Moeldoko, the Army chief of staff, gave what almost amounted to a ringing endorsement of Pramono last week upon hearing that his predecessor might join the presidential race.
"We will fully support him," Moeldoko said. "However, we only will support him morally because the military can't get involved in politics."
None of the other generals has elicited anything like the same level of support from the current military leadership.
In addition to the military's support, Pramono, if he ran, would also have the political backing of the Democratic Party, which most polls suggest will get around 10 percent of the vote in next year's legislative election.
This is a key point because current electoral law stipulates that a party or coalition must have at least 25 percent of the vote in order to be eligible to nominate a presidential candidate.
This would leave the Democrats needing to seek the support of just two or three other parties to make up the difference. However, Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and Wiranto's People's Conscience Party (Hanura) are not expected to fare as well, and could end up being minority partners in coalitions with larger parties, which would see their candidates relegated to running for vice president rather than the top seat.
But events are unlikely to pan out this way, says Andrinof Chaniago, a political expert at the University of Indonesia.
"It's still uncertain whether the Democrats will nominate Pramono for the presidential or vice presidential post," he told the Globe.
"It's all down to the public opinion polls and surveys. If the results aren't good, it's unlikely that he'll get the Democrats' nomination at all."
Andrinof added that Pramono's track record in the Army was mediocre at best, and that he couldn't be expected to transition easily into the role of a civilian leader.
"He's not a popular figure and he has little influence," he said.
"His family connection with Yudhoyono may increase his chances of being nominated, but winning the election will be out of his reach."
Aleksius from UPH agreed that it was doubtful "whether Pramono can shift from a military-style leadership to that of a civilian one."
"People are going to judge him based on his leadership abilities in overcoming the big problems that the country currently faces, and not based on his past leadership in the Army," he said.
Both Aleksius and Andrinof said there was a bigger chance of the Democrats backing Gita Wirjawan, the trade minister, whom they said appeared to have Yudhoyono's tacit approval to run in the party's convention to pick a candidate.
"Yudhoyono is pushing Gita and allowing him to advance, but again his chances depend on his popularity and what the public wants," Andrinof said.
Aleksius said the reason Gita, 47, could be picked over Pramono, 58, was because he could appeal to young and first-time voters, who this year are expected to account for just over 50 percent of voters.
He added that if anything, Pramono would make for a good choice of vice presidential candidate.
"I think his chance of running for the vice presidential spot is much bigger. He can go with Aburizal Bakrie," Aleksius said, referring to the Golkar Party chairman and presumptive presidential candidate.
"But it depends on how popular the Democrats will be in the legislative election. If their popularity drops drastically, they'll have to be content to run just for the vice presidential position. But if they get more than 10 percent of the vote, then there's a chance for them to aim for presidency outright.
| Reply via web post | Reply to sender | Reply to group | Start a New Topic | Messages in this topic (1) |
to Subscribe via email :
batavia-news-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
----------------------------------------
VISIT Batavia News Blog
http://batavia-news-networks.blogspot.com/
----------------------------
You could be Earning Instant Cash Deposits
in the Next 30 Minutes
No harm to try - Please Click
http://tinyurl.com/bimagroup
--------------
No comments:
Post a Comment