What now for the Brotherhood?
The Muslim Brotherhood faces its most serious battle yet, writes Gamal Essam El-Din
Since it was founded in 1928 by Hassan Al-Banna the Muslim Brotherhood has faced several battles for survival. In 1948, following the assassination of prime minister Mahmoud Fahmi Al-Nokrashi and a campaign of disruption which included the murder of Jews, hundreds of Brotherhood activists were imprisoned. A year later Hassan Al-Banna was himself assassinated and the group he founded outlawed.
After initially supporting the 1952 Revolution the Brotherhood was accused in 1954 of plotting to kill Gamal Abdel-Nasser as he was delivering a speech in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria. Nasser retaliated by detaining Hassan Al-Hodaibi, the group's supreme guide, and other leading officials. The Brotherhood was once again banned.
The majority of detainees were released a decade later, in 1964. Yet within a year officials from the group, including the group's most influential ideologue Sayed Qutb, were facing arrest. Qutb was executed in 1966 after being convicted of plotting to overthrow the Nasser regime
Like Nasser, Anwar Al-Sadat began his rule with a brief honeymoon period with the Brotherhood. He released its members from detention and they were allowed a voice in political life. Sadat fell out with the Brotherhood after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979. In September 1981 Sadat ordered the arrest of hundreds of Brotherhood officials. He was assassinated the following month.
Under the 30-year-rule of Hosni Mubarak the Brotherhood faced several crackdowns, none of them as severe as under Nasser and Sadat. Yet according to many political commentators, however difficult the situations it has faced in the past they are as nothing compared to the existential struggle ahead of the Brotherhood after millions of ordinary Egyptians took to the streets to demand the resignation of Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi.
"For more than eight decades Egypt has witnessed confrontations between the Muslim Brotherhood on one hand and secular regimes on the other. The majority of Egyptians kept out of the conflict," says Ahram analyst Ahmed Abdel-Hafeez. "This time, and finally in power, the Brotherhood finds itself pitted against the majority of Egyptian people. They turned out in millions this week not only to demand Morsi leave office but to announce their categorical rejection of the Brotherhood's ideology.
"Foreign analysts fail to understand that the current massive protests are not only about economic hardships, the lack of services and fuel shortages and power cuts, but represent a rejection of the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and its attempts to turn Egypt into an Islamist state."
"The reason most Egyptians have run out of patience with Morsi," argues Al-Ahram analyst Salah Salem, "is because, rather than build a democratic state, he has shown himself determined to use his time in office to reinforce the Brotherhood's grip on power and impose its strict version of Islam on Egyptians.
"When the foreign media wonders why Egyptians aren't willing to give Morsi — they always like to describe him as the freely elected president — enough time to deliver they ignore the fact that if the electorate waited until 2016 Egypt would be dominated by an entrenched Islamist oligarchy that would be very difficult to remove."
In the face of earlier crackdowns, argues Salem, the Brotherhood was able to survive "by spreading the impression that it was the victim of secular autocratic leaders who want to impose Western values on society".
"The Brotherhood was able to win seats in parliament under the Mubarak regime by playing the victim card. The image they propagated was of pious people persecuted because they could offer an alternative to a corrupt regime."
Now, says Salem, and after just one year in power, most Egyptians have come to the conclusion that the Brotherhood's image was a lie.
But what happens next?
Salem warns that the Brotherhood might resort to violence to maintain its grip on power. Indeed, some leading Brotherhood officials said as much on Monday when the army gave Morsi 48 hours to respond to the demands of the people.
"If the Brotherhood opted for violence it will face not only a strong reaction from the army — weakening the group both in Egypt and abroad — and a ban on all public activity, but likely reprisals from ordinary citizens who will not tolerate its attempts to force its views on the public."
Osama Al-Ghazali Harb, chairman of the liberal Democratic Front Party, believes "if Morsi has to be expelled from office by force the group will find itself with two options".
"It can either resort to force in an attempt to keep its president, in which case it will find itself once again a proscribed organization with most of its leadership behind bars, or else it can stage a tactical retreat in the hope it will be able to keep its structures intact. It might even decide to field a candidate for early presidential elections though given the resentment the public harbours towards the MB he won't have much of a chance."
Cairo University political science professor Nevine Mosaad posits another possible scenario. "The Brotherhood is likely to suffer internal divisions, rifts between young activists who want the group to be more democratic and open to the outside world and an aging elite devoted to the Qutbist ideology which a majority of Egyptians have made clear they reject after just one year of Morsi in office."
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