Beware the Scattered Roots of Indonesia's Political Banyan Tree
The most up-to-date Indonesian political developments leading up to the July presidential election: the declaration of Jusuf Kalla as Joko Widodo's running mate, the decision by People's Conscience Party, or Hanura, chairman Wiranto to join the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, PDI-P, and the support of Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie for presidential hopeful and chief patron of the Great Indonesia Movement Party — Gerindra — Prabowo Subianto.
Although Golkar may not be able to put up its own presidential candidate after all, it is interesting to note how its cadres and former cadres continue to play pivotal roles in the country's political landscape.
Kalla is a former chairman of Golkar and still a card-carrying member. Kalla is said to still inspire loyalty among many Golkar supporters, especially outside Java, where Golkar is by far the most preferred political party.
Within Jakarta Governor Joko's coalition, National Democrat Party chairman Surya Paloh was a longtime Golkar potentate before establishing his own political party. The same goes for former Army general and Hanura founder Wiranto.
Thus, with PDI-P's excessive reliance on the support of the political machine that is Golkar, along with the traditional chumminess that has exemplified Indonesian politics, it was inevitable that a Golkar figure would be chosen as Joko's running mate.
With support for both Joko and Prabowo almost evenly matched in Java, the PDI-P may feel the need to rely on the impressive Golkar machine outside the island, where Kalla carries a lot of clout.
Despite its position as the second largest party in terms of the legislative election results, Golkar has struggled with a number of issues, chief of which is the unpopularity of its chairman, Aburizal.
The Bakrie factor has made coalitions with Golkar seem far less appealing, especially if Aburizal were to insist on joining the ticket.
But Golkar is the oldest and most established of all the political entities in Indonesia. Its key to survival has been its pragmatic adaptability and its ability to produce people skilled at working the Indonesian political system.
Considering Golkar was the election machine behind longtime strongman Suharto, its own survival into Reformasi is uncanny and, some say, sinister. When its top brass saw that then-president Suharto's position in 1998 was indefensible, figures such as Akbar Tanjung, Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Harmoko deserted their leader and urged him to resign, proclaiming themselves supporters of reform almost overnight.
This pragmatism will surface again if Aburizal fails to ensure Golkar's part in the next Indonesian government. Should he fall short, Aburizal may well find himself facing an internal coup aimed at removing him as party chief. This is exactly what happened to Kalla when he lost the 2009 presidential election against the current president — Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. It is not improbable for Golkar to ditch Bakrie and shamelessly join PDI-P's coalition in government if Joko wins the presidency with Kalla.
The fact is that Golkar has never been outside the government since the fall of Suharto and that is not likely to change this time around. It is tempting to say that Golkar as an institution rather than political party seems to have a foot in the door leading to all the possible coalitions for the country's top job.
The main drawback of this still seemingly unavoidable feature in post-Suharto Indonesia is that Golkar is ultimately a pro-status-quo force. For Golkar, the governing of Indonesia should always be business as usual, with the already entrenched corrupt practices seen as normative rather than anomalous.
The theoretical advantage to having Golkar as a coalition partner in the next government will be the nominal dominance of the next government within the House of Representatives. But as the current outgoing administration's experience with Golkar shows, it has repeatedly proven itself to be an unreliable partner in parliament, siding with the government only if it had political scores to win with the electorate.
Whoever will become Indonesia's next president may be sure that Golkar's "people" will tag alongside him for the next five years. Golkar's party badge bears a representation of the Banyan tree, a sacred tree whose roots can penetrate far and deep underground. In many ways, with its scattered cadres everywhere on the Indonesia landscape, Golkar truly lives up to its symbol, but with one drawback: given time the roots of the Banyan can topple any structure nearby.
Johannes Nugroho is a writer and businessman from Surabaya. Contact him at johannes@ nonacris.com.
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