As Indonesians Prepare to Vote, Analysts Consider Post-Election Conflicts
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has issued orders for the National Police and the Indonesian Military to step up security around the time of the election. (JG Photo/Safir Makki)
Jakarta. Although this year's election will be the third direct presidential vote for Indonesia, the element of the unknown — and its potential ripple effect — differentiates this one from the others, leaving analysts uneasy about the outcome.
Elections in the politically binary United States provide voters with an effective either-or choice for presidential candidates each cycle. Although there is always a small percentage who casts a "vote of principle" for a minority party, the public knows to expect a winner from one of the two majority parties.
In Indonesia, no one knows what to expect. The country has no previous experience with two-candidate races to better prepare for this election, which most analysts predict as prone to conflict.
With less than a week to go, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono warned of potential conflict.
"I understand the public is anxious about security for the upcoming election. With such a close race between the two candidates, there is the possibility that conflicts could break out after the announcement of the results," the president said on Thursday.
"The conflicts could be instigated by the party that loses the election," he said.
A recent poll released by the PolcoMM Institute showed Prabowo Subianto in the lead with 46.8 percent, and rival Joko Widodo only slightly behind with 45.3 percent. The survey had 1,200 respondents, with a 3 percent of margin of error and 95 percent trust.
Escalating aggression
As the election inches closer, both candidates and campaign teams are becoming more aggressive in their attacks.
Smear campaigns and false accusations over Joko's political views, religious belief and ethnicity, the defamation started by Joko's supporter Wimar Witoelar that landed him a report at the police station by Islamist organization Muhammadiyah, or the sudden urgency to get to the bottom of gross human rights violations allegedly committed by Prabowo Subianto during 1997-1998 on pro-democracy activists are only a few such instances.
The most recent case is a news package aired by Jakarta-based broadcaster tvOne, in which a source accused Joko's party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of having ties to the now-defunct Indonesian Communist Party (PKI).
The unfounded statements immediately sparked protests among Joko's supporters. The PDI-P-affiliated organization called the Volunteers for Democratic Struggle, or Repdem, rallied outside tvOne's headquarters in Pulogadung, East Jakarta.
In Yogyakarta, another group of supporters vandalized the television station with abusive graffiti and barred the entrance of the office.
Overzealous support
Political communication analyst Hamdi Muluk at the University of Indonesia condemned the bad behavior, which he attributed to overzealous support for the instigators' candidates. He described them as useless actions that do not sufficiently help other Indonesians determine their political choices.
"With the election getting closer, it is common to see supporters from both camps getting more excited… Even several fanatic groups have become vocal about their support for one or the other candidate," he said. "The tight competition between two candidates means we are now facing a head-to-head battle between Joko and Prabowo — and that is something new in Indonesia's election history."
But Hamdi doesn't think the heated pre-election atmosphere means a fiery conflict is inevitable.
"This election is not a war. In this republic, we are learning something new about democracy. It is normal to strongly support the candidates, but we aren't certain about conflict," he said. "In order to have a civil vote, every level of Indonesian society — the voters, the election committee, the government officials and the security guards — must behave orderly and be more educated."
Post-election blues
Hamdi is optimistic that the election will be sufficiently peaceful.
"But we also have to direct our concern toward the situation after the election," he said. He is apprehensive about the great tension between the two sides, and what will become of that tension once the outcome of the election is announced.
"While the announcement of the election results is a moment we all eagerly await, it is also the most vulnerable to conflict," Hamdi said.
Nevertheless, he believes it is unlikely that any will escalate to a physical level.
"But there might be conflict if the result comes from election fraud. It is the responsibility of us all to anticipate that."
Political communication professor Tjipta Lesmana at Jakarta's Pelita Harapan University doubts the likelihood of a wholly fair election, saying that fraud practice has began even before the election.
"As with what happened in the legislative election, the upcoming election is also highly prone to fraud. And fraud might be the very reason that conflicts after the election will erupt," he said. "Additionally, if the margin of the outcome is thin, that could possibly contribute to a clash between the two camps."
Tjipta emphasized that the fervor observed among supporters indicates that the supporters would do anything to support their candidate.
"Of course, we do not want conflict of any kind, but seeing massive fraud and the level of excitement right now is a bit worrisome," he said.
" The question now is what will the government do in order to prevent conflict?" Tjipta asked.
The powers that be
Yudhoyono has issued a presidential order this week for the national police and Indonesian military to heighten security around the time of the election, to prevent violations and violence of any kind that could result from the voting process.
Tjipta, however, appears to doubt the effectiveness of these instructions, saying the police have been incompetent at ensuring the fairness of election process since the 2004 cycle.
"It is pointless to hope for more from police," Tjipta said.
"The legislative election was one obvious instance. After the election, several political candidates filed reports with police, but they took no action to move the reports forward," he said.
"Another example is the slow investigation of the Obor Rakyat tabloid. There should have been no problem with that investigation, seeing as they already have the suspect," Tjipta said.
"But with the Democratic Party taking Prabowo's side, it seems that the police have become reluctant to proceed with the case," he said.
"Our police are like speed bumps," he added. "However, regardless of their [officially] neutral stance on the candidates, the Indonesian military is more of a sure bet for maintaining security, both during and after election," he said.
Imam Prasodjo, a sociologist at the University of Indonesia is analyzing the possibility of conflict after the results of the election are made public.
"Conflict is likely to occur if the pre-election mood is sufficiently fervent — the announcement would just provide the tipping point," he said.
"Smear campaigns, wrongful accusations and hateful speech could lead to conflicts after the election, and that has already been going on since the announcement of the candidates in May," the sociologist from the University of Indonesia said.
Even so, those factors only increase the likelihood of conflict — they don't guarantee it.
"However, if these terrible things — such accusations of Communist and Nazi ideology — continue, the possibility of the conflict is all the more likely," Imam said.
"Verbal violence is one of the most effectual factors in provoking conflicts," he continued. "Emotional disturbance is the easiest way to trigger rage."
A likely story
"However, that alone is probably not enough to spark such big riot," he said. "The most likely scenario would have two factions in the same place, or coincidentally crossing paths. Presumably, one faction is massively angry due to [what they perceive to be] an unfair outcome, and the others are celebrating their victory. That would be the most likely starting point for a violent riot."
Imam said that in order to prevent such an outcome, the election committee should supervise the voting process in order to ensure fairness for both candidates and their supporters.
"A fair election is the key for preventing that conflict after the announcement," Imam said.
The responsibility falls on everyone to have a civil and successful election.
Posted by: "Sunny" <ambon@tele2.se>
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