Islamic Parties Surprise in Indonesia's Legislative Elections
United Development Party (PPP) leaders in 2013 show off their party's ballot number in this year's elections. (JG Photo/Safir Makki)
Jakarta. The April 9 legislative election has brought two surprising results.
First, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which was predicted to garner a large number of votes with the help of the widely popular Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as its presidential candidate, only garnered around 19 percent — far below its target of 27 percent.
The second surprise came in the form of five Islamic parties, which analysts had written off as small contenders, performing much better than expected.
With a combined count of 31.9 percent of the vote, according to early data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this year's legislative elections mark the surprise rise of the country's religion-based parties.
Five years ago, the group managed to secure 29 percent of the votes, which was said to be the lowest level of support ever for a country attributed as having the world's largest Muslim population.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) managed to keep its support stable, despite being hit by a graft case involving its disgraced former chairman, Luthfi Hasan Ishaq, who was sentenced to 16 years in prison and fined Rp 1 billion ($84,000) for fixing the quota for beef imports.
The National Awakening Party (PKB) clinched the title for best performer among the Islamic parties, with quick count results at around 9 percent, up from 4.9 percent in 2009.
Trailing slightly behind was President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's ruling Democratic Party, which garnered 9.70 percent of the votes.
The National Mandate Party (PAN) scored 7.50 percent, United Development Party (PPP) received 6.70 percent, while the Crescent Star Party (PBB) gained only 1.60 percent.
Vote fragmentation
Political analyst Ari Dwiyapana from the University of Gajah Mada said the quick-count results should not be used as a parameter to determine the growth of Islamic parties.
He also warned that it would be wrong to assume Indonesians have a tendency to lean toward affiliations born from religious ideologies.
"[The growth] is because the number of political parties taking part in this year's elections have declined significantly, which means there was less competition," he said.
"Furthermore, the PKB, for instance, had also benefited from people who left the Democratic Party because of the rampant number of corruption cases its top-level members had been involved in. This political migration had inevitably lowered the electability of the Democratic Party," Ari added.
"There's a shift in the flow of voters," he continued, adding that despite the huge blow delivered by the conviction of its former chairman, the Islamic party managed to maintain its loyal following.
"The minimum impact [of the graft case] on the party reflects the strong management skills of its members. It has also amassed a significant number of loyal supporters, which could explain its stable voting outcome. However, the party failed at attracting new voters," he said.
Despite grim predictions going viral ahead of the legislative election, the PKS managed to gain a surprising 6.9 percent of votes, only 1 percent lower than its results in the 2009 race.
Siti Zuhro, a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), conveyed similar sentiments, attributing the voting fragmentation to the low performance and electability of parties adopting the nationalist-religious ideology.
"With cases of corruption rampant in this country, political parties that built their foundations on religious nationalism no longer hold an appeal to the public," she said.
Different political scheme
Siti said the quick count results clearly reflect the vast differences in the political scheme that existed during 2009's elections, compared to the current situation.
"Indonesia's political arena has changed drastically over the past several years. The Indonesian people have also changed; their access to information has expanded, they are now more exposed to different opinions and ideas," she said.
"The sociopolitical issues experienced by each political party has skewed people's views of them, which significantly contributed to a noticeable fragmenting of votes. The recent political scheme has reverted back to focusing on honesty, moral values and democracy," Siti said. "After a seemingly endless string of corruption cases, each party is trying put on an air of confidence and repolish its image. Generally, the political parties have seen a slight increase in votes, the most remarkable ones being the Great Indonesia Movement Party [Gerindra] and the National Democratic Party [Nasdem], after receiving more support than previously predicted by analysts and surveys."
Siti echoed Ari's cautionary statement by pointing out that the increase in support garnered by Islamic parties does not necessary reflect the people's growing trust in them.
"Though Islamic parties have shown they have remained strong based on the quick-count results, it doesn't say anything. Citizens are still widely disappointed by the greedy and corrupt behavior of politicians," she said. "With its poor performance and cases of corruption, the PKS, an Islamic party, is not a good example of a clean party, no matter what its slogans of moral values say. This group used to represent the public's interest, yet some have taken advantage of that trust."
Election strategies and influential ties
Political analyst Yunarto Wijaya of Charta Politika said the recent data revealing the increase in support of religious-based parties should not be taken as a massively significant achievement, one that would change the parties' electability in the upcoming presidential elections.
"Candidates and their respective parties should not grow overly confident from receiving a high number of votes in the April 9 legislative elections," he said. "Five years ago, 38 political parties competed for votes. This year, that number has dramatically dwindled to 12."
Yunarto added that the main factors behind the Islamic parties' success are their campaign strategies and strong ties between certain allies from influential Muslim organizations.
"I have to admit that the PKB recorded a remarkable increase [in votes] compared to others. This is caused by the return of Nahdatul Ulama [NU] supporters to the party," he said.
"This was previously predicted. As the biggest Muslim organization in the country, the NU has many loyalists. The PKB's positive performance was also due to the determination of its chairman Muhaimin Iskandar to win over NU's influence and in selecting legislators who have strong ties to the organization.
"Meanwhile, the PKS has managed to maintain a wide range of supporters that aren't easily rattled. Most of them live in rural areas that rarely receive word of graft scandals brewing in the party," Yunarto continued.
"However, the PKS has lost a significant number of its urban backers, particularly those in the capital. Despite the graft scandal, for its loyal supporters, PKS will continue to be an
institution with Islamic values — and that played an important role in the quick count results this year. As for the PPP, its campaign slogan of 'returning home' aimed at reinstating the Islamic values it carried in 1955. That promise is what made the voters cast their ballots for the PPP," he added.
"The United Development Party may not have a promising presidential candidate, and it may be widely considered as mediocre party; it's an old player in Indonesia's world of new politics. However, the PPP is home to many well-connected and experienced politicians with influential positions. This heavily contributed to its rising number of votes," Yunarto said.
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