Tuesday, February 25, 2014

[batavia-news] Scottish Oil and Gas an Issue in Vote on Independence

 

 
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An oil platform in the North Sea. London is arguing that it could better manage the oil and gas reserves there than an independent Scotland could. Credit Pool photo by Andy Buchanan
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LONDON — They have disagreed over whether an independent Scotland could retain the British pound as its currency. They have sparred over whether Scotland would remain in the European Union if it votes in September to leave the United Kingdom. And on Monday, two of the most prominent advocates of the arguments for and against Scottish independence — Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister, and David Cameron, the British prime minister — turned to another crucial economic issue at stake in the battle: the future of the still-substantial oil and gas reserves in the North Sea.

In a staged but striking symbol of their differences, Mr. Cameron brought the British government's cabinet to Aberdeen, a once gritty fishing and shipping port that is now the wealthy hub of North Sea oil and gas, only the second time in 90 years the government had met in Scotland. He announced a new investment to support the energy industry and asserted that Britain's economic size and clout were vital to keeping the profits flowing from oil and gas in the decades to come.

"The broad shoulders of one of the top 10 economies in the world has really got behind this industry," he said of North Sea oil and gas, adding that being part of Britain also reduced the impact of sudden drops in energy prices.

In nearby Portlethen, Mr. Salmond met separately with the Scottish government's cabinet ministers. He suggested that an independent Scotland could follow the example of Norway, which has built a large sovereign wealth fund from its natural resources. He also highlighted his knowledge of the energy industry, noting that he was an oil analyst in the 1980s when Mr. Cameron was still at Eton, the elite English college — a continuation of political attacks on Mr. Cameron as elitist and out of touch with average voters.

With a referendum on Scottish independence scheduled in September, Mr. Cameron has rationed his visits to Scotland knowing that, as an Englishman leading a Conservative Party that is unpopular with Scots, he is not the most effective advocate for the anti-independence campaign.

But at stake in the vote is the future of the United Kingdom, its place on the world stage and the reputation of Mr. Cameron, who does not want to become the prime minister who presided over the breakup of Britain.

Because of its wider ramifications, the referendum is being watched in other regions in Europe with aspirations for independence, like Catalonia in Spain, and questions have been raised over whether Scotland would remain in the European Union if the referendum passes and what currency it would use.

Most opinion polls show the majority of Scots want to stay part of Britain, though the gap may be narrowing.

While he appealed to sentiment in one recent speech, Mr. Cameron hopes that hardheaded economics will prove decisive in September's vote, in which those who are at least 16 and who live in Scotland can participate.

Mr. Cameron's message on Monday boiled down to the idea that Britain could better manage the remaining North Sea oil and gas reserves than an independent Scotland. The British government on Monday announced a 100 million pound investment, or $167 million, in a gas-fired carbon-capture and storage facility at Peterhead. It also promised a new energy regulator and a change so that licenses for exploitation would be awarded in order to maximize the recovery of remaining energy supplies.

But supporters of Scottish independence say that resources have been poorly managed in London, and Mr. Salmond told the BBC that there had been 16 tax changes affecting the industry in 10 years and that 14 different ministers had been in charge of policy in 17 years.

The day of announcements began with Mr. Cameron visiting an oil rig where he appeared for TV cameras in an all-weather jacket and a safety helmet. He did not meet Mr. Salmond let alone hold the face-to-face TV debate that Mr. Salmond has demanded.

Both men know that the economy is a crucial battleground, and Scots have been warned by Britain's three main political parties that they would lose the pound as their currency if they opt for independence. Mr. Salmond disputes that and has accused his critics of bullying. He also argues that an independent Scotland would automatically remain a member of the European Union — though that assertion has been rejected by José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission.

Though that may alarm voters, some pollsters believe that such warnings may backfire by making the campaign against independence seem negative.

Most of Britain's remaining oil and gas resources lie off the northern part of the country in the North Sea or even farther north around the Shetland Islands. Lindsay Wexelstein, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, an Edinburgh-based market research firm, estimates that 85 percent of Britain's remaining oil and gas lies under Scottish waters.

One Scottish government study estimates that Scotland would have been entitled to 94 percent of the oil and gas tax receipts, or about $18 billion, for the 2011 and 2012 fiscal years.

While an estimated 42 billion barrels has already been produced, there may still be as much as 24 billion barrels left, which could be worth more than $2 trillion.

Whoever gains control of this will still be managing an industry in decline, as a report published Monday by the British government makes clear. The study, led by Ian Wood, the retired founder of the Wood Group, a large Aberdeen-based oil services company, noted that while investment was at record levels, production had fallen by close to 40 percent since 2010 and that exploration in the last two years had produced poor results — less than 150 million new barrels.

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