Indonesia's Islamic parties in decline
Publication Date : 23-10-2013
When former Solo mayor Joko Widodo was elected Jakarta governor in September last year, he became an overnight sensation for defeating the widely experienced and well-regarded incumbent Fauzi Bowo.
But when he was touted as a presidential candidate because of the high ratings he received from pollsters, he became the source of disquiet among Jakarta politicians envious of his meteoric rise.
Widodo's emergence in national politics has jolted leaders of five Islamic parties. Until last month, they were oblivious to the election fever that has seen other parties busy preparing and naming their candidates for the presidential polls in July next year.
The five Muslim-based parties eligible to contest in elections next year are the United Development Party (PPP), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), National Mandate Party (PAN), National Awakening Party (PKB) and Crescent Star Party (PBB).
They are considered "Islamic" because they have either a formal ideological basis in Islam or rely on an overtly Islamic identity for most of their support.
The PPP has proposed that the nation's Islamic parties should come together and nominate a Muslim leader who could block the rise of the Jakarta governor.
"There should be a figure from among the Islamic parties who can come forward (and compete against Widodo)," said head of the PPP faction in Parliament, Hazrul Azwar.
To achieve that, he proposed that all five Islamic parties form a coalition to form a counterweight to the secular-nationalist forces that support the Jakarta governor, popularly known as Jokowi.
Hazrul's standpoint seems to be that Indonesia's president should be a respected Muslim figure, given that it is a Muslim majority country. This is despite the fact that the 1945 Constitution does not stipulate the religion of the head of state.
Widodo is Muslim but the Islamic parties seem to view him as a secular-nationalist who may not be able to fully understand Muslim aspirations.
While the move may be prompted by the desire to block the Jakarta governor, there is no certainty the Islamic parties will succeed in forging a coalition among themselves or, if they do, will be able to find a candidate every component party is willing to support.
Forming a coalition is necessary if the Muslim parties want to take part in the presidential elections. The law requires a candidate to have the support of 20 per cent of seats in the House of Representatives, or 25 per cent of the popular vote garnered in the preceding legislative elections. Based on the 2009 legislative elections, none of the five Islamic parties would qualify. The PKS garnered 7.88 per cent; PAN 6 per cent; PPP 5.3 per cent; PKB 4.9 per cent; and PBB 1.8 per cent. But as a coalition, their combined total of 25.88 per cent makes them eligible to field a team of candidates for president and vice-president.
However, personal rivalries and competition for the Muslim vote in the same constituencies mean that it will not be easy to forge such an alliance.
But assuming they manage to cobble together a coalition, there is also the problem of agreeing to the choice of candidate, particularly if each party has in mind its own party chairman or patron as a presidential nominee.
Non-party Muslim figures such as former Constitutional Court president Mahfud MD and government minister Dahlan Iskan might be persuaded to stand. But opinion polls have cast a doubt on their electability. There is certainly no guarantee that they can defeat Widodo.
And while it is natural for the Islamic parties to react to Widodo's popularity, they would be better off focusing on the reasons for their own decline. Their popularity has dwindled from a high of 44 per cent of the votes garnered in the country's first free election in 1955, to 25.88 per cent in the 2009 election. This is despite growing Islamic piety in Indonesia compared with the early years of independence.
One factor accounting for the decline is the decision of parties like the PKS to de-emphasise their Islamic goals. The PKS now stresses good governance and welcomes non-Muslims into the party. The result is that it has lost many of its core supporters. Other contributing factors include mismanagement, corruption, internal strife, lack of strong leaders, and poor performance by party representatives in Cabinet as well as local government.
The PKS, which took pride in its stand against corruption, now has leaders embroiled in corruption allegations over beef imports.
Islam, meanwhile, is no longer regarded as the exclusive preserve of the Islamic parties. All of the major non-Islamic parties have combined Islamic appeals in their activities, including support for syariah-based legislation. The secular PDI-P has an Islamic wing designed to attract Muslim support, effectively blurring the difference between secular-nationalist and Islamist parties to voters.
Islamic party leaders need to reflect on their organisations and decide on whether to rebrand or change their strategy in order to arrest the decline. The Jokowi phenomenon may come and go but the problems that the Islamic parties have been struggling with are slowly threatening their very existence.
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