Rupiah Drops Most in a Week as Debt Payments Fuel Dollar Demand
Indonesia's rupiah fell the most in a week amid speculation local companies were boosting dollar purchases to meet month-end debt and import payments. Government bonds declined.
The currency weakened 0.8 percent to 11,446 per dollar as of 10:01 a.m. in Jakarta, the biggest drop since Sept. 11, prices from local banks show. In the offshore market, one-month non-deliverable forwards were little changed at 11,245, 1.7 percent stronger than the spot rate. The contracts were 2.2 percent weaker on average in the past month.
The currency sank 5.9 percent in August, the biggest loss since November 2008, and the central bank said Sept. 12 that recent moves were justified by economic fundamentals and the depreciation would help tackle the nation's current-account deficit. Bank Indonesia doesn't want to see the currency "too strong," spokesman Peter Jacobs said last week. The current-account gap was a record $9.8 billion in the second quarter and imports exceeded exports by $2.3 billion in July.
"The view is still bearish on the rupiah in the short term," said Suriyanto Chang, head of treasury at Bank QNB Kesawan in Jakarta.
"There's regular dollar demand from companies around this time, but the rupiah should be supported at about 11,500 as there's a lot of interest to sell dollars around that level."
One-month implied volatility for the rupiah, a measure of expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, climbed 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, to 16.96 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A fixing used to settle the rupiah forwards was set at 11,011 per dollar on Sept. 20, according to the Association of Banks in Singapore.
"With the rupiah weakening, the trade deficit will eventually recover on slower imports and see the rupiah consolidate toward 10,800 by year-end," Chang said.
The yield on the nation's 5.625 percent bonds due May 2023 rose three basis points to 7.90 percent, according to prices from the Inter Dealer Market Association.
Bloomberg
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