Syria and the stakes involved
Hassan Barari
Published — Sunday 23 February 2014
IN a clear signal of support to the Syrian opposition, Western and Arab intelligence services met last week in Washington to discuss ways of buttressing the Syrian rebels in their bid to defeat Assad. Among the most important participants was Prince Muhammad bin Naif who has recently replaced Prince Bandar bin Sultan as the Saudi man in charge of the Syrian file.
Undoubtedly, the participation of Prince Muhammad bin Nayef in the meeting reflects the high stakes for Saudi Arabia in the conflict in Syria. Unlike the American administration, Riyadh has a clear vision and strategy for ending the Syrian bloody conflict. Therefore, the Saudi participation in the meeting comes at a time the American administration is questing for another strategy in dealing with the Syrian crisis. President Obama has just reached the conclusion that the Syrian regime is not serious in the Geneva talks and that President Assad intends to decide the battle over Syrian in military means.
In the run up to Geneva, Riyadh did not share the American optimism with regard to the outcomes of the talks. Yet, fearing to be seen as playing the obstructive role, Riyadh supported the talks. Nonetheless, the Saudis officials knew that the talks in Geneva would be futile because they understood that Assad would not budge.
The intelligence gathering in Washington that includes chiefs from Jordan, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United States reflects the concerns of these countries about the rising role and power of Al-Qaeda. But they also understand that the rise of Al-Qaeda is a function of Assad's war on his people. The key challenge for these countries has been how to provide assistance to moderate groups without risking aiding radicals such as Al-Nusra Front or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). These countries must have realized that their hesitant policy in dealing with the rebels has cost the Syrian revolution unnecessary losses.
That said, the United States has yet to back its rhetoric with concrete policies. According to David Ignatius of the Washington Post, although President Obama is still cautious about any military escalation in Syria that would draw in the American troops, the United States may "embrace de facto safe zones" to provide humanitarian assistance.
A key topic on the agenda of the intelligence chiefs in Washington meeting was whether to supply the opposition with advanced weapons, especially anti aircraft missiles. Many reports claim that the CIA is already training fighters in Jordan to be ready for any qualitative shift in the battles. Will this change signal a new American policy? Let's not forget that President Obama had his credibility at risk when he failed to act on his redlines. He backed away from his threat to launch a strike on Assad's forces. Interestingly, he argued that he never had red lines! He said that he drew the red lines on behalf of the international community.
Thus far, the indecisive American policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis has been far from being effective. To be sure, after Obama has been looking for an alternative policy to help end the war in Syria, his critics in America have yet to present a specific and detailed policy.
The point is, however, that President Obama feels that Geneva talks will go nowhere. The Syrian regime refuses to discuss a transitional government as had been planned. For this reason, he asked his team for policy options. Obama, who does not believe that there is a military solution to the conflict, may change his mind in the weeks to come. The stakes are high. On the one hand, the American allies in the region believe that Washington is no longer reliable and that they cannot rely on America in future serious crises.
The argument that the US is disengaging from the region is a widespread one these days. After withdrawing from Iraq and winding down the American presence in Afghanistan, Obama seems not interested in another military adventure. Nevertheless, Obama needs to restore the credibility among his allies in the region. On the other hand, Obama feels that Assad and his supporters are looking for a military solution. Not surprisingly, if Assad and his supporters win the crisis, American allies in the region may rethink their strategic relations with America. Senior officials in the American administration understand this logic and for this reason Washington is thinking of new policy option with regard to Syria.
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