Indonesia's Diplomatic Challenges Involve Regional Stability, Security
The lead-up to the elections in 2014 will no doubt be dominated by the economy, social security, education, law enforcement and the eradication of corruption. These issues have been the foundations of many previous campaigns in which the candidates have emphasized policies at home with little emphasis on their plans abroad. Perhaps they may have thought that an international focus would not help them win over their people's hearts. So they went on selling their "domestic products," without realizing public support is also important for the country's international relations and standing.
Currently, it is impossible to detect the degree of knowledge potential presidential candidates hold on the country's international affairs. Nor can one foresee whether the presidential candidates will be visionary enough to attend to new and pressing international issues Indonesia will face after 2014.
What is certain, is that the new government will have to live in a more challenging regional environment if the current geopolitical competition continues. To show that the next government is adaptive enough in its foreign policy, it will have to demonstrate its strong adherence to the 'foreign policy doctrine,' which includes a dynamic equilibrium or the Indo-Pac Treaty.
Supporting such a doctrine will not only help the domestic audience understand how important it is for Indonesia to maintain a global and regional link but will also prove that Indonesia is consistent with its path toward making the Asia-Pacific region more secure and stable.
The next government must realize that Indonesia is becoming increasingly interconnected and there is now greater integration of the country at the regional level, through trade and defense partnerships. Therefore the new government must not waver from the current administration's commitment to international efforts in setting the Asia-Pacific agenda for regional security, but must also simultaneously maintain Indonesia's basic national interests.
On the Southeast Asia level, the government after 2014 must recognize the existence of amity and enmity patterns in relations. The enmity pattern of relations manifests in the South China Sea dispute, Thailand-Cambodia at the Preah Vehear temple, the Malaysia-Philippines Sabah dispute and other potential nontraditional security issues, which may affect the stability of the countries' bilateral relations. This enmity pattern of relations will persist, unless the next government, together with Asean, takes a more pro-active regional approach, which presses for amicable, multilateral ways to solve the problems.
The new government in 2014 will also welcome the realization of the Asean Community, which President Susilo has said Indonesia is committed to continuing. It also means that the challenge of the next government is to inject fresh policy initiatives into the community, not only to make the community more dynamic, but also to allow the members of the community to perpetuate a sense of partnership within the group. This suggests that the president after 2014 should have a vision and a strategy to avoid enmity elements in the community and develop a greater sense of amity instead.
With the more increasing complexity of international relations in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole and the problems Indonesia might face in the future, the next government needs to initiate huge diplomatic investments to ensure that the dynamic equilibrium and the Indo-Pac Treaty continue to be relevant for the region. This is not to suggest the next government must change a great deal the way Susilo's government managed regional security, but simply to open wider policy spaces in the region so that Indonesia's ideas for regional security will find their place in the changing strategic environment.
The president-elect is likely to bring new leaders into office and this could set into motion processes that bring changes in policy toward the Asia-Pacific region. These new leaders will bring with them new expectations about the country's international role and position after 2014. Such new expectations should be based on the new paradigm of international relations as envisaged in the 2012 annual statement of Indonesia's Foreign Minister.
The policies of the next government, to be effective, will have to take into account the current and future trends in world politics. Meaning that the realization of expectations of the next government will to some extent be shaped by the relations between the major powers.
Once the new cabinet is officiated in October 2014, the immediate policy steps it initiates must assure the international community of its commitment to principles of free and active foreign policy and to continuing stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region by emphasizing the importance and benefits of the dynamic equilibrium and partnership diplomacy.
Given the possibility of reservation from the regional countries, including the major powers, toward Indonesia's proposal for closer Asia-Pacific regional security arrangements, it is imperative for the next government to look at every possibility offered by multilateral and bilateral mechanisms to promote the country's regional security proposals.
A two-pronged strategy, either through multilateral or bilateral mechanisms, must be effectively employed if the next government is to secure its proposal as well as the gains it has obtained from the already extensive international diplomacy of President Yudhoyono's government.
Here, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will definitely be at the forefront, as it is now, steering the region toward accepting Indonesia's proposal for regional security. It is in such a process that the ministry must be ready to mobilize whatever resources are available and change its outlook, if necessary, to adapt to the changed regional strategic environment.
Of course, the next government may not be sure how the region will look in 2014. Because of the uncertainty over future relations in the Asia-Pacific region, it is important therefore that the next government understand the nature of possible changes around Indonesia. However, leadership in foreign policy is more than just responding to the geopolitical competition between the major powers. It is also a matter of focusing on long-term strategic foreign policy goals. This means that the next government must capitalize on whatever resources it has to build a much stronger international position in order to implement these goals.
Everyone knows that regional strategic challenges, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, do not rise in neat five-year cycles. They can occur at any time and each government inherits regional problems it must manage.
The next government, therefore, needs to construct projects for a five-year term that fit Indonesia's domestic and international interests. One of these projects can be building stronger international links so as to make Indonesia's proposal for regional security well received by the region.
If the next government can prove it has such a capacity, then it can be said Indonesia's deeper involvement in managing regional security can be conceived as something like a joint venture, because it also involves other regional countries in such undertakings.
Bantarto Bandoro is senior lecturer in the faculty of defense strategy at the Indonesian Defense University
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